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Would E.T. phone or write?
First
contact with extraterrestrial civilizations is more likely to come from a
message in a bottle, not a radio signal, says a new study.
Dan Falk
September 1, 2004
If
aliens from a distant solar system wanted to make their presence known, they
would be better off writing than phoning - that is, using something more
like the Rosetta Stone than a pulse of radio waves, a new study suggests.
The study, by Christopher Rose and Gregory White of Rutgers University
in New Jersey, looked at the energy efficiency of different forms of long-distance
communication. The results "suggest that our initial contact with extraterrestrial
civilizations may be more likely to occur through physical artifacts — essentially
messages in a bottle — than via electromagnetic radiation," the authors write.
Their paper appears in the September 2, 2004, issue of the journal Nature.
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Message en route: The phonograph record aboard each of the two Voyager
spacecraft holds 115 images, natural and animal sounds, 90 minutes of music
from different cultures and eras, and spoken greetings from Earth-people
in 55 languages. Each record is encased in a protective aluminum jacket,
together with a cartridge and a needle. Instructions, in symbolic language,
explain the origin of the spacecraft and indicate how to play the record.
NASA / JPL
[larger image]
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The
reason most discussion of interstellar communication has focused on electromagnetic
signals, the authors explain, is that it was usually taken for granted that
messages would be short and that speed was of the essence — that is, that
a prompt reply was desired. But if that's not the case — if you're sending
a long message, and you're not worried about the amount of time it might
take to reach its destination — then a physical message is the most efficient
choice, the authors say.
"If you don't worry about delay, meaning
whether you're going to get a call back any time soon, then it's much better
to write the thing down," Rose told Astronomy. "Radio seems really good, but it disperses rapidly as a function of distance. Mass doesn't disperse that way."
Of
course, such a message — the authors call it an "inscribed matter" message
— would not literally look like the Rosetta Stone. It would have a much greater
"information density," with billions of bits of information packed into a
tiny volume. Such a feat has become far more plausible in recent years thanks
to advances in nanotechnology.
As an example, the authors consider
a message containing as much information as three standard DVDs — about 100
billion bits of information. They compare the amount of energy needed to
send it physically, using a Voyager-size space probe, to that required to
send and receive the same information via a radio beam, using a pair of antennae
the size of the Arecibo dish in Puerto Rico, currently the world's largest.
If the target is more than 200 light-years from Earth, say Rose and White,
the inscribed-matter method — the DVDs — is more efficient.
This also
raises the possibility that artifacts from an alien civilization may have
found their way to our solar system already. The authors suggest a number
of places we might look for such inscribed-matter messages, from airless
moons to the various "Lagrange points" in our solar system — stable locations
where gravity does not perturb an object's orbit. (This idea was central
to the plot of 2001: A Space Odyssey, in which astronauts discover
an alien-built monolith on the Moon.) Looking for such artifacts could be
a new approach to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI).
"Our
results suggest that carefully searching our own planetary back yard may
be as likely to reveal evidence of extraterrestrial civilizations as studying
distant stars through telescopes," the authors write.
Woodruff Sullivan,
an astronomer at the University of Washington in Seattle, cautiously endorses
the Rose/Wright paper in an accompanying article in the same edition of the
journal. However, Sullivan points out several possible weaknesses in their
argument. For example, "it is not clear that the key criterion for choosing
a message's medium would be energy expended per bit, as they [Rose and Wright]
assume," he argues. Sullivan also cautions there is no guarantee an inscribed-matter
message "would ever in fact be recognized as such," although he notes that
electromagnetic messages may similarly fail to be recognized.
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Interstellar communication via radio waves is best for short messages
where speed is of the essence. Otherwise, say Rose and White, send inscribed
matter. NAIC / NSF
[larger image]
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Seth
Shostak, senior astronomer at the SETI Institute near San Francisco, agrees
that efficiency may not be the most important factor. Rose and Wright describe
inscribed-matter messages moving at no more than 1/1,000th the speed of light,
which is far faster than today's rockets but still slow enough that a voyage
to a nearby star system would take tens of thousands of years. "They say
they're not worried about speed," Shostak says. "But in any real situation
you would be worried about speed." After such immense spans of time, he asks,
how could you even be sure that the civilization you were targeting would
still exist? "Hundreds of thousands of years might be a long time compared
to the lifetime of a technological society," he says.
Paul Horowitz
of Harvard University, a physicist involved with optical-wavelength SETI
efforts, wonders if "pellets" of inscribed matter launched into space would
actually end up where you wanted them to go. (Rose and Wright base their
argument on blocks of matter that receive an initial "fling" rather than
having any sort of rocket aboard.) Says Horowitz: "I think the big problem
is, how would anyone, or any civilization, launch such a pellet and have
it arrive where it's supposed to with any probability of success?"
At
the very least, the paper seems to be making scientists re-think some assumptions
about interstellar communication. Rose and Wright have "an intriguing idea,"
says physicist David Spergel of Princeton University. "Since we are completely
ignorant about the goals of an alien civilization, it is worth trying all
plausible approaches."
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Dan Falk is a science journalist based in Toronto..
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